Rockets-Warriors: 5 takeaways as Houston dominates to force Game 7

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Young team, on the road, facing elimination, going against an opponent with plenty of big-game postseason experience … what could go wrong?

Well, not much, actually, for the Houston Rockets.

They were the steadier, smarter, tougher and quite simply the better team. This was especially — and shockingly — true down the stretch of Game 6 at Chase Center. It was almost as if they switched personas with the veteran Warriors, who went quietly and quickly into the night.

So it was Rockets 115, Warriors 107, and now more importantly, a Game 7 on Sunday (8:30 ET, TNT) between these teams in this suddenly suspenseful first-round series.

The Warriors were ready to close out the series, but the No. 2 seed Rockets had different ideas. Fred VanVleet showed the way for three quarters and then the Rockets stepped aside and let the Warriors beat themselves with an anemic fourth quarter.

This raises all sorts of possibilities Sunday at the Toyota Center in Houston. The Rockets will be at home and swollen with confidence after falling behind 3-1 and fighting off elimination twice. The Warriors do have Stephen Curry and Draymond Green and Playoff Jimmy Butler. But they’ve looked old, and now must travel two time zones to play in 48 hours.

Who’s bringing the edge Sunday?

Who’s going golfing next week?

Here are five takeaways as the best-of-seven series shifts back to Houston with a berth in the West semifinals on the line:

1. Fred is flourishing

Over the last three games, two of which the Rockets won, the No. 1 player on the floor is the one who went undrafted. That would be Fred VanVleet, who just hit another 3-pointer while you started reading this story.

Over the last three games he scored 24, 25 and 29 points and drilled open 3s constantly — 18-for-27 from deep over that stretch. That sounds … familiar?

Well, he’s out-Stephing Steph. And it’s coming at the right time here in the playoffs. This is why the Rockets emptied the wallet for VanVleet a few summers ago in free agency. They wanted his veteran presence, his championship pedigree, and his unflappable approach in tense moments. And they’re getting it all.

The Warriors have been helpless against him, and while VanVleet can be streaky at times, he’s locked into a groove right now. He had his way against Curry in the 2019 NBA Finals and is doing it again now. Golden State needs to huddle up and come up with a plan against him.

2. Warriors have the Game 7 sauce

In these win-or-else situations, one team has the clear upper hand. Or we should say, two players in particular: Curry and Butler.

Here’s the data for Curry’s five such appearances: 32.6 points, seven assists and 6.5 rebounds. Oh, and his most recent Game 7? That was blistering — he dropped a dramatic 50-piece on the Kings in Sacramento a few years ago (and that city has been haunted ever since).

Over Butler’s four appearances: 22 points and four rebounds on average. But, much like Curry, this doesn’t begin to tell the impact of his most recent two. Butler terrorized the Celtics both times, averaging 31 points and eight rebounds and almost sent the Celtics home twice, missing a jumper in the final seconds of one game.

Basically, although the Warriors famously blew a 3-1 lead in the 2016 NBA Finals, they have a pair of players who have handled the urgency and the unforgiving nature of these games. That doesn’t mean postseason experience will definitely win — it didn’t Friday — but it gives the Rockets a reason to be concerned.

3. Will we see the Jalen Green Game (again)?

The Rockets’ leading scorer has been a ghost much of this series, and was once again Friday after delivering a whimpering 12 points in 32 minutes. Green, who had 38 points in Game 2, otherwise scored 47 points over the other five games (including three in single digits).

His body language is sagging along with his confidence. There are times where he’s deferring, a sure sign of someone who’d rather pass up shots than miss them. That’s a dangerous mentality for a scorer, but perhaps an understandable one for someone like Green, who’s 23 and lacks a rich postseason history.

But all it takes is one massive game to erase everything. He has that chance Sunday. He’ll be at home in friendlier confines. And odds suggest this slump won’t last forever. It’s all in his favor. The first quarter will be telling and important. If he gets hot and the crowd behind him, that’ll help. If he’s tossing bricks and his shoulders slump, that’ll hurt.

4. Warriors crashed hard in the fourth

Houston was up only by two points when the fourth quarter began. Then astonishingly with just under five minutes left, the lead was 17.

The expanded deficit was mostly self-inflicted by the Warriors. They stopped rebounding, hitting open shots, protecting the rim or covering the Rockets on the perimeter. It was a collective collapse, all told, and with minutes remaining the outcome was no longer in doubt.

How bad was it? The Warriors missed 11 of 12 from deep. They missed 13 straight shots at one point, some of them clean looks. Curry had three points.

Again, the stunning part is this was the more experienced team. This normally doesn’t happen in such situations, against much younger teams. But it did, and it bedeviled the Warriors.

It also fed the notion that, just maybe, weariness is settling in. Golden State had to fight through the play-in tournament. This appeared to be the case of a younger team using their athleticism, speed and — hunger? — to their advantage.

Speaking of Rockets advantages …

5. Two-headed center is a monster for Houston

Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams overwhelmed the Warriors. Along with VanVleet, this was the decisive factor Friday that pushed this series to a Game 7. And there was nothing the Warriors could do to prevent it.

Sengun hasn’t always had his way against Draymond, who won the one-on-one battle a few nights ago in the final seconds. But the Rockets’ young center keeps charging ahead. He brings tricky moves in the post and keeps Draymond, one of this generation’s best defenders, on his guard. Sengun in Game 6: 21 points, 14 rebounds, six assists, three steals.

Adams isn’t a stat guy, but delivered throughout his season-high 31 minutes off the bench. His presence in the paint, role as a secondary defender, calming leadership and surprising ability to draw fouls was big. In this series the Rockets are a plus-53 when he’s on the floor.

Adams in Game 6: 17 points, five rebounds, three blocks.

This presents a problem for the Warriors. Draymond can only handle so much. Quinten Post, who lacks experience, and Kevon Looney, who doesn’t play much, will both need to raise up another level against the Rockets’ duo.

Or that’s a wrap for the Warriors.

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Shaun Powell has covered the NBA for more than 25 years. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.

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